From the best accountants and lawyers to the smartest derivatives traders to teachers and lecturers, many of today's most prestigious jobs could, thanks to globalisation and improved communications technology, just as easily be done more cheaply in places such as India and China.
From reading his comments, both in the Telegraph and earlier this year in The Wall Street Journal, it's not clear the usually cited answer - "education" - is really going to do much to reverse the trend he predicts.
"We have to think more subtly about the types of education and it's not so obvious that there's a great future in America for computer programmers, accountants and for some types of lawyers - just to take three highly-educated people.
"Lawyers involved in family disputes, and criminal lawyers - they've got to stay around. But lawyers that write contracts, and lots of accountants, maybe that kind of education is not such a fabulous idea. Educating people to go into what I call the personal services is a good idea - some of which don't require all that much education - so electricians, carpenters, plumbers, roofers - skilled trades.
"This is a very new thought for the highly-educated, white-collar class to think that they may have to compete with low-wage foreign workers. Manufacturers have been doing that for generations. But accountants, lawyers, intellectuals?"
Blinder's view, I should note, is not widely shared by other economists. But in times like these, when too many jobs seem to be chasing too few accountants, it's worth keeping in mind, if only as a reality check.
The future's bright . . . but not for lawyers and accountants [The Telegraph]
No comments:
Post a Comment